Strategy Sermon
Tribal Decisions: Strength vs. Work Ethic

No one wants to go to Tribal Council, especially early on in the game. But the decision that many castaways face early on (especially at that first Tribal Council) is not who to vote off but rather what direction your tribe is going in, namely those with great physical (or mental) strength versus those who pull their weight at camp.

Obviously, both types of people have a lot to bring to making a tribe successful. Success in the challenges is just as important as maintaining a livable condition at camp. Just as obviously, those who are not physically fit and do nothing around camp (Guatemala’s Brianna, Pearl Islands’ Ryan S.) become quick targets early on in the game (as they should).

Looking at the game logically, strength at the challenges and camp work can reinforce the other aspect. That is to say you need strength at the challenges to have better camp life and vice versa. If you succeed at the challenges then you do not have to go to Tribal Council and thus have more people at camp to divide up the work. On the flip side if you lose a lot of people and the burden of the work load falls upon a few people who will then not have any energy for the challenges. Of course if no one is doing any work around camp or if only a few members are working then the tribe doesn’t have ample food or water and does not have the energy to be competitive in the challenges.

But in all honesty, most Survivors come into the game either physically strong or they make up for it by working their butt off at camp. Some (All-Stars/Pearl Islands’ Rupert, Exile Island’s Terry, Palau’s Tom) were great workers and huge physical assets (at least until the merge when they become liabilities) and were virtually never targets in their own tribe. But when it comes to decision time, you will usually have to choose between those who are pulling their weight at camp or those who will help your tribe in the challenges (Guatemala’s Morgan vs. Lydia, Exile Island’s Tina vs. Cirie).

Obviously the details of each scenario vary. Other more important factors can include how a tribe member contributes to tribe moral, an illness or injury (which hurts the tribe in both aspects) and playing abrasive personalities against each other. But in making this decision of these qualities in others, consider these aspects.

1) Physical strength is something that is ingrained whereas camp work is something that the other members of camp can pick up. (Advantage physical strength)
2) Not all challenges are based on brute strength. Many involve swimming, diving, fire-building and other mental challenges. (Advantage work ethic)
3) People with good work ethic usually have leverage when it comes to making alliances. (Advantage physical strength)
4) Those with great physical strength become easy targets to other members of your own and the opposite tribe after the merge. (Advantage physical strength)

In light of this information, physical strength can be considered to be a more important quality than work ethic. Obviously it is better for a Survivor to possess both of these traits and a tribe must ensure that is it neither a tribe of lazy muscle-heads nor a group of workaholic weaklings, but they must ensure that their tribe is strong enough to gain the numbers at the merge. Physically strong players also are usually not as adept at making alliances outside their own tribe (Panama’s Terry, Amazon’s Dave) because the other tribe is trying to vote them off. Also, it becomes easier to turn your own alliance against these strong players after the merge, for fear they might win the individual challenges.

Strong players are those that can get your tribe to the merge strong, but then are then discarded after the merge. The strong should ally together after the merge because usually the weak will group together and target them. While this may seem like a disadvantage to the stronger people, for weaker people they draw attention away from themselves when it comes to voting after the merge. Any weak players that make the merge should thank the strong ones whose strength the tribe recently lauded now becomes their Achilles Heel.

Why Cirie Didn’t Deserve To Make the Final Four

Let me paint you a picture. Day 2, Cirie, and the other women are clearing an area for the camp when Cirie declares she is afraid of the leaves. Leaves people. At that instant, she loses any worthiness of being declared “Sole Survivor.”

This season could be considered by the general public to be either Cirie’s or Terry’s season. Cirie was the most popular Survivor of the season, Terry was the most dominant. The comparisons between Cirie and Terry are laughable at best. Terry won five straight immunity challenges and four reward challenges. Cirie won only a single reward challenge (the coconut chop challenge, which requires absolutely NO skill or physical talent). Terry had to endure the hardships of Exile Island four times, more than anyone else on the show. Cirie was never sent to Exile Island. Terry played the game with a target on his back throughout, winning immunity challenges with the knowledge that at the first weakness, he would presumably be voted out. He used these wins as well as the Hidden Immunity Idol to propel himself into the Final Three, while Cirie sat back and coasted to the Final Four.

Unlike other notable players who have flown under the radar and never won an immunity challenge (Tina Wesson, Sandra Diaz-Twine, Vecipia Towery) Cirie got past the tribal phase of the game without being considered a target. This was not only because she part of the majority alliance or major politicking. On the contrary, Cirie was outside the major Casaya alliance in the beginning (Shane, Courtney, Danielle and Aras) and was told point blank by Shane that she would be voted out after Melinda (this was on day 6). So how did she last thirty more days and make it to the final four? The answer is plain dumb luck. Let’s start from the beginning.

Cirie should have been the first one voted out of the Older Women’s tribe. She was initially pegged as the weakest and least helpful around camp (which she was). She targeted Tina with the idea of taking out the strong first (FYI Cirie, NOT a good idea to take out your strongest member at the beginning, especially if you don’t know how many challenges your tribe will have to face before a shuffle/merge). Initially, Melinda and Ruth Marie seemed half-hearted in voting out their strongest member and main provider of food. The four went to tribal council and it appeared that Cirie was going home. Then, BOOM! Tina makes a snide comment about her other tribemate’s work ethic which causes a major commotion and resulted in Tina’s ejection.

Then the four tribes become two. Cirie’s tribe, Casaya, loses the immunity challenge and the group is forced to vote one member out of the tribe. The “Power Four” of Shane, Danielle, Courtney and Aras decide that it will be either Cirie or Melinda going home and that who ever doesn’t go now, goes next. It may have looked like a toss-up to them, but from the couch, it appeared that they would vote off the less physically-fit Cirie. Instead, they spare her and send Melinda packing.

Many attribute Cirie’s tenure on the island to her good social skills, but the fact that Casaya won two straight immunity challenges allowed Cirie to work her magic on the “Power Four.” Then, when Casaya finally lost an immunity, Bobby became an obvious choice when he made the stupid decision to drink the last of the wine Casaya had won at the reward challenge (even Cirie noted that she would not even consider drinking the last bottle of wine). Shane’s threat to vote Cirie off next disappeared when Bobby made his stupid error and even amongst the scattered votes not one was cast for Cirie (who three or six days ago would have been voted out in a New York minute).

So Cirie made it to the merge and from there on it was clear sailing. Her physical weakness turned from a liability to a strength and her social skills kept her from being voted out once Casaya had to “eat on of their own.” She was arguably one of the master strategists after the merge when she cut out the unpopular players (or the ones would have been popular picks to bring to the final two) and allied herself with powerhouse Aras.

In the end, it was her lack of fire-making skills that got her voted out, but her social skills and allying did not get her to the merge. It was, in reality, the stupid decisions of others and sheer dumb luck that allowed her to get to the merge and then got her farther.

While many admire couch potatoe Cirie for “getting off the couch and onto Survivor,” she was not worthy of her fame. A true Survivor should be able to survive and succeed based on their survival skills, athletic ability or ability to manipulate. In short, Cirie displayed none of these qualities until day 30.

Survivor Exile Island: A Recap

So...Survivor Exile Island has finally come to an end. Aras comes away with the title of Sole Survivor and the $1 million. While this is the first Survivor which I will be actually recaping, I will do the other previous 12 seasons as I either see them on DVD or repeated on the Outdoor Life Network. Time to see how Survivor Exile Island summed up.

The Challenges: 9/10
While it might seem boring to watch a season in which Terry dominated basically every challenge, the fact that he won in order to stay alive in the game made it even more fascinating. The challenges were diverse, from the mental to the social to the pure strength to the ones of simple will power. Some of the challenges were simple, but effective and entertaining ways to determine who wins reward or immunity (usually Terry).
The Characters: 8/10
Shane and Courtney were the two you either hated to love or loved to hate. Cirie made a stand for couch potatoes everywhere while Danielle was the apparently spoiled rich girl. Terry was the iron-man who seemed to be invincible while Cirie was a wisecracking manipulator. Bruce the ninja in disguise and Aras the mellow yoga man made that final six a complete thrill. Unfortunately, beyond them we didn't see much in terms of the other players' characters with the exception of maybe Bobby and Dan.
The Location: 2/10
Panama, yeah. It was fun the first time we went there with the pirate theme and Rupert (aka Blackbeard). It was even okay the second time with All-Stars (when we saw more of the weather's effect on Saboga). Now it's just getting old. Is Burnett just running out of exotic locations?
The Strategy: 5/10
Terry and the La Mina tribe can't crack the Casaya Five. For most of the game, the votes were pretty much automatic. The only real power swing was when Cirie got Aras and Danielle to vote out Courtney and then Shane. Otherwise, the only strategic player appeared to be Shane (even though he couldn't see Cirie and Aras plotting against him).
The Twists: 7/10
Exile Island and bringing back the Immunity Idol. Immunity Idol = great. Loved Terry having leverage over the game and the prospect of someone being voted out...only to whip out the Idol and send someone who they thought had dodged the bullet back home. I thought Exile Island would have more of an impact because people would be sent there and taken out of the game (thus allowing the rest of the tribe to plot against them). However that never transpired and instead many people were just sent off because they weren't liked. However, there should have been some tribal shuffles too and (in my opinion) the winning tribe should send one of their own to "the Island."

Overall: 6/10